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THOUGHT OF THE DAY: From the New York Post, Monday, December 27, 1999, Cindy Adams quoting Paula Roberts: "Stock market: 30 percent dip early on. Mid-year correction to within 10 percent. Year's end, big rally. Gold: Options low until March. December bonanza." Oddly enough, this roughly corresponds with my own outlook for the year 2000. I believe the first half will be very rough for the stock market, especially high-tech and internet shares, with a partial recovery as we head into the Presidential election, though I personally believe we will still have about a 12% total net loss for 2000. As for gold, it will probably bottom in March (a rough guess), then rally strongly through the late summer, with a real possibility of the XAU doubling, before it fades as the election approaches. How to play this: At the present time, buy bonds and other high-dividend shares. When the put-call ratios and VIX are very low in January or early February, buy a small amount of index puts. Sell everything when gold bottoms in March and buy gold shares. Sell gold shares in early August and buy closed-end U.S. equity funds such as Adams Express (ADX). |
