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Technology Stocks : RATIONAL SOFTWARE- BUY OR HOLD
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To: ratlong who wrote (3007)12/29/1999 6:36:00 PM
From: Hans-Erik Eriksson  Read Replies (1) of 3115
 
ratlong,

As always I think we fundamentally agree.

Rational is now in a position where:

1. They are taking their basic business model and growing it by market growth.

2. Expanding it geographically, taking it into new countries and territories.

3. Spreading their fundamental and correct ideas on modeling and process, which in turn sells their tools.

The potential for unexpected surprises would be found in:

1. The new Internet sales company (official but not yet launched yet) which I hear things good about - Grady Booch being launched as the companys technical mentor, and a senior VP experienced in training as the CEO of the company. The fact that they haven't rushed this out too quickly is a positive - that could mean it is really good once released. The challenge is of course to have it accepted as a "non-rational" sales site, but in due time to make money of it.

2. New products that are truly "e-business, e-learning, e-whatever" oriented -- their current product portfolio is great and will expand with several upgrades - but with their financial and technical strength you would hope they got stuff cooking in their labs. To be truly accepted as a "e-business" supplier they need a killer app. It shouldn't really be that hard - how about a "Rose for Modeling Web Applications" which could integrate with Dreamweaver and a couple of the transaction backend solutions ?

Ratlong, I agree the future winners are in b2b e-commerce and telecom (mobile?) -- must admit that I'm not familiar with all the tickers you posted. But the true winners in that market is probably not even on the board yet. Not wanting to insult anyone in the US, but I think the real stock winners in that area is to be found in Europe now (in terms of technology and market progress / stock price).

So overall I'm moving out of NASDAQ. I am still long in my basic RATL position, but I don't expect any sensational changes in price anytime soon (without a overall downturn market, which could happen anytime soon).

Best & A happy new millenium to all,

/Hans-Erik
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