Art,
Whoa, guy, now you're hitting where it hurts. RE: <<A good way to measure the success of CF and the weakness in traditional hard drives is to watch the performance of Hutchinson Technology (HTCH), which has been the dominant manufacturer of a key component of hard drives.>>
As a shareholder in both companies (unhappily so in the case of Hutch), I beg to differ. Hutch's problems have nothing to do with Sandisk's success, they have everything to do with the growth in the single platter drive and the relentless competition in the HD sector to drive down costs. I daresay flash has not taken one sale away from traditional disk drives yet, and I doubt if it will for years to come, the capacity is still far too low. I am not counting IBM's minidrive as a traditional drive here--flash surely has taken sales away from that, and will continue to do so, IMO. But that was never a large market.
FWIW, I do think that Hutch should see a decent bounce in January, presuming that the general market doesn't get killed, at least as a 20-25% January effect play, and perhaps better than that.
Regards,
Sam |
