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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc.

DELL 133.18

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12:59 PM EST

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To: jhg_in_kc who wrote (150007)	12/29/1999 11:06:00 PM
From: Marq Spencer	of 176387

jhg, There are many assumptions that are incorrect in that "fundamental valuation model". 1. That the ASP for a cell phone in 2010 will be $180!!! (To see that on the Dell thread is even more amazing). 2. That QCOM will continue to get 4.5% royalties even in 2010 when many other technologies will be a part of a cell phone, and the relative value of CDMA tech will be much less. 3. That 3B cell phones will be sold in 2010 (maybe). But even worse, they'll continue to be sold at this rate. Isn't there saturation at the number of people on this planet :)? 4. Patents don't expire! Reality is that patents have a limited lifespan. One can always come up with ways to justify anything if one is willing to suspend disbelief. Maybe QCOM is worth $200B today (200MM shares at $1000 each) based on perfect conditions. But even if all the ideal assumptions come true, it will then be fully priced forever. No more upside. And what about some discounting for some of the risks out there? Anyway, this got much longer than originally planned, but I hate the Wall St. ANALysts who try to put a "fundamental" rationale to something so out of whack. I want to see what these guys write a year or two from now. - Marq.

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