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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: Cirruslvr who wrote (84331)12/29/1999 11:23:00 PM
From: Charles R  Read Replies (4) of 1573427
 
<Next year, the Athlon will offer superior performance over Cumine.>

Somewhere you got brainwashed. Athlon to CuMine-PIII is what Katmai-PIII was to K6-3 - only better. Athlon currently offers better performance than CuMine even with 2nd rate infrastructure. Or, were you one of the souls who considered K6-3 to be better than PIII?

<Intel's only hope for the year is Willa-its-original-release-date-be-mette? >

Some pretty knowledgeable folks at Intel tell me that they expect Wilamette/Foster to have an edge on Athlon/Mustang but be behind Sledgehammer. So, there is a project at Intel to fix that - a new core is targetted for H2 2001. The AMD guys on the other hand think that Mustang is going to be no slouch compared to Wilamette and that Foster will get killed by Sledgehammer.

What I see for the next year and half assuming near perfect execution is a game of leap-frog that extends all the way to end of 2001 with AMD dominating 2000 and Intel having a shot at dominating 2001.

<Either that or hope AMD screws Dresden up. Both are up in the air as far as I'm concerned because I don't know much about either's current status.>

Other than Paul, pretty much every other data point I have says that Dreden is a done deal. But, Paul was right once before on Dresden so caution is justified.

Chuck

P.S.: Assuming Wilamette comes out in Q4 and works as advertized, AMD can be pretty successful without volumes out of Dreden until Q4 - any delays beyond that will materially stunt AMD's growth.
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