To All,
I heard back from Marathon regarding the present depth of the George Savell well--they said they are at 13,800 feet--this compares to the 11,200 feet I heard they were at on 03/19. If the 11,200 foot depth was correct on 03/19, that means they only drilled 2600 feet in a month. The planned depth is 17,000 feet. It appears they have another month of drilling.
I am beginning to think that news regarding the consensus estimate for the 1997 second quarter may be the reason for the stock performance as of late. As we know, CWEI will have the major portion of the 3-D seismic survey expensed in the second quarter. The only estimate I have in hand for the second quarter is from Paul Ferretti of ABN AMRO/Chicago, and his estimate is 0.08. Two things we have going for us are: 1) Paul was very low on the first quarter, 0.27 vs a probable 0.42, and 2) Paul based his estimate on an oil price of $19.75. Oil prices have started clibing very rapidly as of late, and he stated in his report on CWEI, for every $1.00 increase in the price of oil, CWEI's earnings would increase by $0.35 to $0.40. Oil opened at $20.51 this morning, up $0.13 from yesterday's close.
Buzz |
