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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 659.00

+1.0%

Nov 21 4:00 PM EST

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To: Lucretius who wrote (36215)	12/30/1999 9:03:00 AM
From: jttmab	Read Replies (1) of 99985

Luc, everybody thinks the other guy is the dumb one.. For the moment, I think I'm the dumb one. Never held a net stock; couldn't bring myself to buy QCOM when it bounced off the 50 day EMA (@160sh); thought there would be a sell off in preparation of Y2K; bought equities that were at reasonable value with good growth prospects, no debt and solid balance sheets [they didn't do well]. So here I sit with money markets and bonds at the end of the year looking at all the international markets up; NAZ futures, at 8:30, up 50+; wondering how much QCOM will gap up. A friend of mine, now in retirement, invests in mutual funds only. He doesn't follow the market other than the major indices and his fund values. We e-mail from time to time on the markets. I got an e-mail from him a couple of weeks ago and he wrote..."I have to laugh over the ups and downs of the markets." He's fully invested and no doubt will continue to stay fully invested through a "correction"; I've noted that in the past the only time he gets "nervous" is when the market corrects to around 15%. This I think is the "average investor." They turn on Wall Street Week and listen to Louis laugh at the "corrections" citing the historical data that shows that one year after the correction the market is at new highs and ridicules the short term investor. The "average investor" can make no sense out of valuations [can any of us]. So they unconsciously assume that the closing price is akin to "fair value". They glaze over the simple concept of shorting a stock and can't fathom a short squeeze. Let's not forget that the average person has a average IQ of 90-110. M3 is way up, but if I accept that M3 is M2 plus CDs over 100K then there is a lot of cash on the sidelines; there must be some additional cash waiting for Y2K to pass and the proverbial January effect is nearly upon us. There is no fear of Y2K apparently...so why would I expect any selling in January? Edit, one more note [off tech] on insanity. Jenny Craig was up some 35% purportedly based on Monica doing an add. Why would Jenny Craig think that Monica could bring in revenue? Do American women all want to have sex with a Pres? I would have thought that it would have been a negative for revenue and the stock...one more illustration of my dumbness... jttmab

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