>>that Kohl violated German law for receiving these contributions >>
right
>>and preparations are underway to charge him >>
right
>>therefore he would have to reveal the sources sooner or later >>
only so-so right.
Kohl was always anxious to make sure that no 'fishy allusions', directed either legally or morally, would taint his public image. In that way he was actually a totalitarian. However he has proven to be immensely stable and resolved in resistance. So even if he was legally in no position at all to stay silent, he might personally choose to do so.
Additionally it has already been cleared that a former threat of the Parlamentary President to allow Kohl to be taken to jail to make him talk will never be brought to reality (the President, Thierse, himself known for good conduct, has asked Kohl's pardon for that threat).
It is therefore conceivable that Kohl stays put for a decade or more simply by exacting a strong will.
On the other hand, it is incalculable whether his party will be more damaged by him staying with the present tactics or by an eventual publication of the silent contributors and their reasons. It depends on who they are and where the money came from, and that is information Kohl seems to have (almost) alone so he is the only one to decide.
The party (with few exceptions) urges him to speak, and the younger and the eastern members are even very outspoken about that.
The tabloid conservative BILD, the biggest impact factor on the silent majority, supported Kohl to stay silent ('gentlemen don't talk').
Up to now polls have shown that the electoral majority doesn't take the matter so serious in their evaluation of Kohl as a person, as a historic chancellor, as a party chief and so on, but quite serious in their comparative evaluation of Schroeder as a chancellor (hence, the magic interview brought here by goldsnow), of Kohl's party and of Schroeder's party. Therefore I should think that while up to the Kohl scandal the chances for winning the pivotal state elections in Schleswig-Holstein (February 27) for CDU and SPD were equal, it is now a 60:40 chance pro SPD.
In any case, I think talking any later than the second week of January will do more harm to Kohl's party than talking earlier, and only a realistic hope to take the secret to his grave can really be the reason not to talk now.
But I have thought so in other situations before, and Kohl has always outmastered me both in procrastination and in finding positive side-effects of it.
Regards MNI. |
