Good outline on Cree. I want to toss in a few comments.
Forget about the military microwave opportunity. The commercial potential on the microwave application is truly staggering. Consider that these devices may allow building very inexpensive relays that could be pasted unobtrusively on the sides of building or existing telephone poles. It is becoming increasingly difficult to find sites for Towers (not to mention that they cost $250K and up) because nobody wants them in their back yard.
The power output may not be as high as traditional antennas, but they should be cheap enough to distribute far more widely (not to mention more quickly) and thereby get adequate coverage. This alone could be an enabling/ discontinuous invention that makes wireless communications ubiquitous.
On the patent side, I've reviewed some as mentioned in an earlier post. I like what I see. They have patents on certain critical steps in building the device, in particular the oxidation needed for isolating layers. Can you end round these patents? Probably, but I'm betting at considerable additional costs. I see these as the most valuable ones since I think the market for non Led devices dwarfs that of LEDs in value.
Another future market would be blue solid state lasers. These need orders of magnitude increases in lifetime to be commercial (but that was also the case with flash memories in the 1980's). When (I'm sure its when and not if) these are commercial they would find immediate uses in fiberoptic data transmission (read bandwidth) and data storage(read CD's,DVD, EO, etc.)
Selling the raw wafers is a smart move as it will help develop the value chain, which frankly I find hard to define (excepting the military interest). I think that once they commercialize the microwave devices, a large value chain could rapidly erupt especially if the scenario I presented above plays out.
We can argue that there is a value chain built around the current LED's but that doesn't excite me much. What is the value of these LED's to NOKIA? Maybe 20 minutes more battery life? A small change in battery technological could wipe that out. Perhaps there is a marketing reason that has more value (people like blue-green better?)
Have they crossed the chasm? In terms of LEDS I think we can answer: Yes. In terms of being able to make SiC wafers: Yes...but that in and of itself is directly of value only to the jewelry application. (BTW does anybody know the market size for fake diamonds, as this is arguably a better fake?)
In terms of any of the other applications mentioned: No way.
Are they in a tornado? I think they are in a dust storm with the LED's. For me the application is too trivial, I want to see them being driven swept along as an essential element of the communication whirlwind or the highpower/hightemp applications (motors, actuators, etc.)
On the other hand I think they have a lot of the pieces of the puzzle and it is just a matter of putting them together.
As a disclaimer I wish to say that I don't know much about SiC markets and devices per se, but I do have several decades (geez I'm getting old)of experience with semiconductors and when I was younger and hairier I did get a degree in Ceramic Science so I once knew something about SiC. Of course none of that is likely to make me correct about Cree!
I should also mention that I hold a small but soon to be moderate position in Cree.
Fatboy |
