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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

AMZN 226.50

-1.9%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Eric Wells who wrote (89123)	12/30/1999 12:44:00 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph	Read Replies (2) of 164684

If you double the number of phones above in order to try to come up with an estimate of the number of phones in the world today, you would get 800 million. To predict that there will be 3 billion cellular phones sold in the year 2010 is to predict not only an incredible growth in cellular phone sales, but an incredible growth in phone ownership in general (to say that 3 billion phones will be sold in a year probably equates to the existence of more than 6 billion phones in the world). It's hard to pass judgement on the Paine Webber analysis without seeing the data. But I think I can draw one conclusion: the Paine Webber forecast was not conservative. Eric, There is one more issue. The price per phone was figured at $180 each. That assumes the cost of cellular phones will not drop over the next then years. I doubt that. Also, half the population will be buying a new cellular phone in one year alone so I suppose these must be disposable similar to bic lighters. I plan on buying 300 phones myself in 2010. How about you? Glenn

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