This thread badly needs a sourpuss.
Humbly....
To set the stage for my thinking, let me say that I am long JDSU, and see it as a great long term play. Now, look at the following top-performing stocks from my long term, buy and hold portfolio, all bought in March/April, and how much they're up. (Let me emphasize that my 40-stock portfolio itself is NOT up anywhere near an amount that should make anybody jealous <g>).
See if you can note the common factor.
BRCM 453%
JDSU 397%
ORCL 317%
NT 250%
SUNW 173%
YHOO 144%
CSCO 113%
EMC 118%
VTSS 104%
Yes, they're all internet/telecom plays. This is the place, IMO, to be invested for the future. (Big news <g>).
BUT 1. JDSU has gone up, December 14-30, from 110 (post-split price) to 164. That's 48%. MHO: the funds are buying as window dressing. IMO that demand will stop now.
BUT 2. Folks with big capital gains can sell in January without paying 1999 tax.
BUT 3. Look at the chart for the NAZ. What do you think the chances are for a correction?
BUT 4. The pre-split mo-mo play is over.
BUT 5. Have I heard somewhere that tech stocks tend to correct in January?
So, I sold half my long-term position yesterday and will look to re-enter lower in Y2K. And won't touch JDSU as a trading stock. Long-term, I feel my remaining position is quite safe; I just feel it prudent to hedge that bet at this point.
Flame away.
Best wishes,
Sourpuss Tom |
