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Strategies & Market Trends : Tech Stock Options
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To: Mephisto who wrote (2497)6/11/1996 5:28:00 PM
From: Pascal A. Mons   of 58727
 
Mephisto,

ASND markets only ISDN and Analog products... They are not at all in ADSL nor ATM (at any rate).

I think beeing out of ATM is not a real bad omen for them. Since at the moment this technology is convenient only for high thruput data rate. That may evolve over the course of time. However, given the actual mix of RBOCs transmission equipment, it won't change overnight. See it more like the hot talks a few years ago about replacing all twisted wires with fiber optics... Crazy if you look at the cost of equipments (and needed investments)... Naturally it went down... True ADSL will be the solution. However it's still one year away at least, and I don't see ADSL as an immediate threat to ISDN. It should first serve new markets : mostly Interactive TV programs, and to some extent Internet connections though not for the corporation (They have T1 lines and ISDN fits perfectly), and not for the casual user (price of the Modem vs. gain of speed).

So I think given what is the world right now, ISDN won't disappear immediately, and at the moment ASND is on a sure business... otherwise new competitors (CSCO & USRX) wouldn't have flock to this niche recently.

However if you were to worry about some company vs. technology change, the most at risk is USRX ? heavy play on the Analog business...

If someone else has a motivated opinion on this it should be interesting to share...
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