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Microcap & Penny Stocks : Globalstar Telecommunications Limited GSAT
GSAT 59.88+5.4%Nov 24 3:59 PM EST

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To: JMD who wrote (9013)12/31/1999 2:19:00 AM
From: Maurice Winn  Read Replies (3) of 29987
 
SurferM, I don't go for the "10 bagger within maybe 2 years or zero". Neither do I go for ho-hum [though anything compared with Q! this year will be ho-humish]. My theory is $200 per share, with the guess being either in 4 years or 2 years. Neither of those results would be ho-hum, but the 4 years would represent a huge opportunity cost.

They are wasting 10bn minutes a year as we speak. The success of the system will directly relate to how quickly they get those minutes being used and 'max out' the satellites. To do that the service providers need to realize they will make FAR more money by creating a buying frenzy and pandemonium in the handset makers. They need to do that with early price slashing [for minutes to create wild demand for handsets and minutes].

A lethargic rollout which is what we've had means a huge loss. In the end, service providers will compete for minutes. Those who figure that out will get their customer numbers up very quickly and lower their minute prices to do it. The greedy and stupid ones will sit tight on high-margin plans, picking up a few thousand customers here and there and thinking they are doing a fine job.

Then, when the squeeze goes on minutes as satellites 'max out', the service providers with huge numbers of customers will be able to raise prices and make the most stupendous profits in human history. The other service providers will look on with envy.

The conventional wisdom is that the service providers have Globalstar over a barrel. That's true in the sense that the service providers can damage Globalstar by doing a slow rollout at high prices. But when the demand for minutes rises, the service providers will be scrambling for the spare minutes, then Globalstar shareholders will invite bids for the spare minutes available and service providers will be paying $1.50 a minute to Globalstar and getting 20c for themselves. Heh, heh, heh!! That's my theory anyway.

This is either bigger than Qualcomm or only a wild success. Forget about zero.

200/2/2002 [sound familiar Caxton?]

[With my usual conservative estimates]

4 hours to Y2K and the world is still turning, though raining which will probably put the kibosh on last sunsets [maybe they'll get one way down south in a little while] and first sunrises.

Happy Y2K!

Maurice
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