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Non-Tech : ZOLT
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To: NEIL MACK who wrote (197)4/22/1997 12:58:00 PM
From: Rob Bonner   of 970
 
Neil:

I made 10% on a month's investment, which is not too bad. In addition I avoided the risk of negative earnings which could have brought about new lows. As I mentioned, it becomes more and more likely that earnings will dissapoint as time goes on. Notice the incrementally smaller earnings gains over last quarter and look at the number they will have to beat next quarter. Where will the growth come from? There would seem to be only so much improvement ZOLT can get out of the Viscosa plant unless it entirely converts to making precursor. Look back at Flyguy's recent posts concerning the likelyhood of that happening. The rest of the upside in earnings would have to come from carbon fiber and their capacity remains at 3.5 million pounds. I know they expect to have 5 new lines going this year for an addition of 5 million pounds, but it is getting late for those lines to contribute to earnings. And then there are those who have voiced doubts about ZOLT's carbon fiber technology...and why have two CFO's headed for the door. I am comfortable with leaving a few bucks on the table and leaving the risk behind. I also respect your decision to stay in. As for Merrill Lynch, I wouldn't wait for their analysts to tell you when the time has come to exit. I don't mean to put down anyone else's investment decision. I am only throwing out the conclusions of my own due diligence so that others can consider another opinion. Good luck and I hope you longs get a good ride out of it!

Rob
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