Nice finish for a good the year in the patch. The last day of trading stocks for this century. 2000 will be a historic year for the markets. Fortunes will be made and lost in the same year. Should be very interesting to watch the internuts scramble after 1/3/00. Who will be the first to try to get out the door, as the door get smaller and smaller and the crowd get larger and larger? 2000 is the age of trading on line, which was not available in prior manias. What took hours in the past will take seconds in 2000.
Will there be time to rotate to the value stocks, or will the whole market come down with them? There will be books written about the dangers of momentum trading. Stocks that just go up because they just go up and up and up...........until PE's exceed 1000x. Japan is still recovering from the bursting of it's mania bubble many years later. The longer the mania continues unabated, the worse it will be when it finally unwinds. We all know when the longest mania occurred in the United States, and there have been many others since. They all end the same way and this one will be no different.
Interest rates should rise after Y2K fears are over. The fed will have to reverse it's policy of monetary expansion because of the inflationary effects on the economy. Interesting how the fed looks now only at the core level of inflation Vs prior periods. $50 billion injected into the economy right before Y2K will come back out. It will be interesting to watch the effects of higher interest rates on stocks with PE's of 1000x.
The cash that was sucked out of other sectors by the internuts have left some of them with all time historic low valuations. Quality mid cap oils selling at 2.5X 2000 cash flow Vs 1000X for some of the internuts. Where do you want your money??????
Let the games begin. My bets are placed, and I am margined up to the gills.
Got TWD, PTEN, PGO, NR, KEG, TBDI, BHI, MDR and GLBL, on the service side. Got OEI, VPI, BSNX, NBL, BR and yes I even have RRC. Sold RIG to soon when it broke $30 and I am still trying to buy it back. I like to hold not trade, but I promise I will not own any E & P or oil service stocks after August 2000.
Good luck to all and a prosperous new year. I have enjoyed all the posts over the last year, and yes I think Slider has a lot to offer to this thread.
Jim |
