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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 659.00+1.0%4:00 PM EST

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To: bobby beara who wrote (36368)1/1/2000 1:36:00 PM
From: bearshark  Read Replies (1) of 99985
 
BB:

I think the INDU, SPX, and Nasdaq will be below their Jan. 3, 2000 openings at the end of the year.

I see three primary issues.

First, the Fed and the economy. If we had Y2K inventory buildup, it may resolve itself and the FOMC will look brilliant again. However, I think they may have more difficulty this time.

Second, I expect a shakeout in e-tailing this year. How long will their capital hold out? Even Bezos said it last night. That may provide some sense of reaility.

Third, we have presidential elections. Many dislike Clinton. However, he presided over the greatest wealth-creating period of my lifetime. The markets began their move up with his election in 1992. What happens when he is gone and someone not so slick is there.

In 1997 and 1998, we were coming off of nice inverted H&S patterns in the major indices. This year we never formed the right shoulder on any of them. So we do not have the same base that we had at the start of 1998 and 1999.
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