Hi Ed,
Happy New Year to You and All here in ATHM.
You ask,
"What will it take to steer that herd to another drinking hole and pasture (@Home)? Will speed do this? I continue to get the same answer when I ask, "Why do you have AOL?" Answer: "All my daughter's friends have it."
It may take some taming of the dog that bit you. In other words, "open access" to those same AOL chat rooms that would allow ATHM and other ISP participants. Chat rooms which, by the way, are bound to go voip at some point. Excite has something similar to this capability now in the way of voice chat, but it lacks the critical mass of the AOLers you referenced.
The greater ease of communicating, less latency, higher overall quality, will be the draw for crossovers who have a choice. Or, as a means of some new revenue sharing schemes through settlements for specific services like chat. Stranger things have happened.
Just some thoughts which I believe are founded on historical precedents in other communications venues. Like, the Internet.
This is simply another one of those cases which highlight how closed, proprietary solutions just don't work very well for the general good. These may turn out to be negotiating chips as each of these providers, and many others, seek concessions from one another.
Frank |