OT sort of, investment bigthink
Duncan,
>I also lost a large sum of money on a technology company >which was promoted as the next big thing.
Would you satisfy my curiosity and tell me what company that is? And more importantly, if you were making that investment decision with the knowledge you have now, what about the company would tell you "stay away" ? I find it fascinating to learn from my own mistakes -- and learning from others' mistakes is like all the benefit without the cost. :-)
FWIW, my big stock mistake this year was AOL. I still don't really understand where I went wrong, but I rode it down from 170 to 105 before selling and licking my wounds. Sure, I got in at sky-high valuation, but AOL valuation for the past x years has just been getting sky-higher...
>"first-mover" status
Actually, I think first-mover status is overrated. Oftentimes second-mover or even nth mover status wins out in the end. This is true in strict game theory, as well as in the real world of technology companies. It can be very beneficial to let someone else go ahead of you and make all the mistakes for you -- a minesweeper. Think of first-mover companies such as Spyglass (Mosaic browser), Compuserve and GEnie (online services), Commodore (multimedia computers), Quarterdeck (multitasking DOS shell)... "where are they now?"
One of my cardinal rules of investing is that almost always, the beneficiaries of "new technologies" are the old, established technology firms. I know that whatever Linux does first, Windows NT will do second, but better, and more marketably -- and whatever Juniper or Redback does first, Cisco will do second, but better, and more marketably (sometimes by just buying the upstart).
Best regards in the new year and sorry for cluttering things with the OT.
BTW, IMHO, lack of Y2K problems means party on the Nasdaq this week. |
