Engineer,
For argument's sake, let's go to 2010. How fast do you think HDR would be: 5Mbps, 10Mbps, or 20Mbps? If your "handset" had such HDR, would you call it a handset? I won't. I would call it a wireless modem or gateway, and I don't see selling 3 billion of these modems or gateways in 2010. In these devices, CDMA becomes a last mile technology competing against DSL and Cable Modem.
What I do see selling billions are devices that have data capabilities in the 100s-kbps range. Rather than being handsets, these devices would be embedded in wearables such as necklaces, glasses, watches, earrings, and even key chains. (A key chain may not be a wearable device.)
If CDMA is the main wireless technology in 2010, these LDR CDMA gadgets will out sell the HDR CDMA devices by one magnitude. And the ASP will be a lot less than $185.
I think I am being more open minded than "short sited"; ten years is too far out to predict. But if I had to make one, mine isn't any worse than the one by Paine Webber.
Happy new year, and yes, electricity is still up!
Khan |
