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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs

SPY 690.31

0.0%

Dec 26 4:00 PM EST

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To: d. alexander who wrote (24669)	1/2/2000 2:34:00 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) of 69291

Dorothy, It looks like it was quite a party in Time Square last night. I would hate to be one to clean up the mess the morning after though.<g> Favors calling a short term top. jerryfavors.com It supports a scenario I have been considering. The last few days of December saw fund managers trying to get a position in winners so they can show that they held QCOM etc ... for the end of Q report. The result is that the strong got stronger, but they are all now overextended. Coming back from the holiday they can now sell these high flyers ,given there valuations, and redeploy into their stock picks to out perform for the coming year. The first day back usually has a void in news so the stock market will essentially be flat that day. Afer that the economic reports start to come in. Given that earnings season for the teches does not really begin to the falling week, the market will be economic news driven for the most part. Concern will be for how much the Fed will raise. The increase was essentially delayed due to Y2K issues if I remember the last Fed comments correctly. There after the reaction will be to sell the news as the earnings come out. The will continue till after the Fed raises rates. At that point the market will realize earnings are better than thought and will rally till the tax season is over. There after we will go into a pre-summer/summer slump. Keep in mind individual stocks will still buck the trend so earnings and the conferences I posted should still effect stocks. Comments/different scenarios? On the 2'nd tier optical companies, some one decided to get in them that last week. Look at POCI and LPTHA. POCI was a penny stock a short while ago. LPTHA has a complicated warrant structure, and I have never done well on stocks that have that kind of structure. SPLI was the strongest of the bunch that I looked at. MRVC is still worth a look on a pull back. That $166 price target will become a magnet when the first IPO is announced. Harry

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