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Technology Stocks : Softbank Group Corp

SFTBY 87.91

+3.3%

Oct 31 9:30 AM EST

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To: Edwin S. Fujinaka who wrote (2963)	1/2/2000 3:38:00 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) of 6018

Edwin and Malcolm, I am curious at times and, gad, look what I found ... message 7289 on Bre-x thread ... the party for that stock fell apart around message 7370. So, let us not get into an argument and concentrate on our basket(s) of eggs. If I am right, I do not have to argue, and if I am wrong, I can not afford to argue. QUOTE To: Lalit Jain who wrote (7289) From: Graham Thorley Sunday, Mar 16, 1997 11:22 AM ET Respond to Post # 7291 of 28196 Lalit you will not get silenced by me. While I may not agree with everything you have said your post is the the type of non gung ho factual message that is required on this thread just as I believe some of mine have in the past been. Concerning the valuation you have stated my own belief is that this value (and let me state I agree that if the the 3 year forward clock was moved back to this point in time now your value range could be very close) will not occur for some of the following reasons. 1) the huge resource will never reach its full potential because almost if not all of any future increase in the resource has no hope of being mined in our lifetimes and its value will be primarily based on cash flow earnings plus a discounted value for earnings going forward. To give it the same multiple as other majors is not totally realistic unless at that time there is some diversity of sovereign risk by way of other mines in their holdings as well as growth from other properties in the works (the latter could well occur and then you would see a value accorded for it). Cosider Busang to be a vast tract of land sitting to the North of Toronto or other major city. Forcasts are for the land to be built up and developed as another major urban area in 20 - 40 years. The land when built on will be worth up to $10 Million an acre at its centre decreasing down as you move to the outskirts. This land at present is worth say $50-$100,000 an acre and even provides a financial return because it can be farmed, rented etc. This land will rise in value with inflation or time as use becomes closer. Gold is no different. 2)My own belief and this is shared by others is that the lofty multiples being enjoyed by Gold producers is going to come down possibly to low teens. The world is finding more and more gold and Busang is an example of this. Despite the fact that they have been saying for 10 years or more that we are using more than we are mining the price has trended down. Why because investors and central banks have been seling of to make up the difference. Just think what will happen to the price of gold when producers start pumping out more than their is demand for. 3)Indonesia is a high risk country and democracy is lacking there. Resource companies in this situation tend give up some of their premium because of the risk. I believe investors are going to have a nagging fear that the Indonesians are going to snatch another piece of the pie down the road. Lalit your posts have offered substance and are a pleasure to read by me and I am sure many others because they stimulate thought and analysis of the situation. Drumbeat and some others were constantly bitching about Barrick and the news media and when you start using 4 or 5 names to accomplish this it gets disruptive. Freedom of speech is fine but only one voice per person please. Graham UNQUOTE

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