>>>Comments/different scenarios?
Harry; just to add to the mix. Here is Briefing at the end of the first week of 1999.
Close Dow +105.56 at 9643.32, Nasdaq +18.86 at 2344.95, S&P +5.36 at 1275.09: Well, suffice it to say the first week of 1999 was a resounding success with each of the major averages hitting new record highs... Buoyed by a flood of new cash pouring into mutual funds, and the resilient leadership of the tech sector, traders were reluctant to take profits-- and when they did, others were there to buy their stock... Today was no different as the market pushed noticeably higher at the opening bell, boosted by an employment report denoting continued strength in the U.S. economy, and positive earnings/shareholder news from AT&T (T +2 15/16) and Alcoa (AA +7 15/16)... The earnings news from Alcoa coupled with the employment data sparked a rally in cyclical shares which were the clear leaders in the broader market... Aluminum, paper, steel, auto, and airline stocks were among the biggest winners... Internet stocks led the action in the tech sector, pushing the Nasdaq to an early 41-point gain... However, a round of profit taking in the afternoon wiped out that entire gain, and with an hour left in the session, the Nasdaq was down ten points, and the Dow and S&P weren't that far behind... Then a busload of 6-year olds showed up at the exchange, unloading their piggy banks on unsuspecting market makers, prompting an impressive closing rally... Seems that just about everyone wants a piece of the action... To wit, volume on the NYSE totalled 940 mln shares and a whopping 1.272 bln on the Nasdaq... Notable non-participants included the drug, homebuilding, consumer goods and oil-related stocks... DJTA +40.61... DJUA -1.05... SOX -0.82... CRB +1.25.
Note: the Naz close on Dec 31 1998 was 2192.69, so it gained 152 points that first week of 1999.
And here is the last Market Timing Comment from the Schaeffer site
For morning of 12/31/99: Unfortunately, the OEX put/call volume ratio continues to register readings so high that there is still little to no prior precedent. Whether it is due to Y2K fears or not, OEX call volume has been abysmally low for the last two weeks, i.e. few investors want to buy calls on the market. While the equity put/call ratio is flashing a very slight warning for the very short term, the VIX (implied volatility) is considerable inflated over historical volatility. Should the world still be here come Monday, this is quite capable of producing a relief rally as the millennial fears dissipate.
Plus this on the SOX
optionsource.com
Dorothy
|
