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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices

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To: ajbrenner who wrote (84583)	1/2/2000 1:09:00 PM
From: niceguy767	Read Replies (2) of 1584041

Hi ajbrenner: Just reread the Salomon Smith Barney report... They project an increase from 1.3 million "spry Athys" in 1999 to 12.5 million "spry Athys" in Y2000 while at the same time projecting production cost savings of 40 to 50% as the die size is reduced from 0.25 to .18 microns!!! It's really worth looking behind these numbers, as all other things equal (i.e. a continuing strong flash market), it seems to me that if the 12.5 million target is realized, the $2.00 earnings estimate by Salomon Smith Barney is more likely to be achieved quarterly (i.e. Q3 and Q4)than annually. If the exponential growth in shipments of "spry Athys" required to end the year 2000 with 12.5 million units occurs, quarterly earnings will likely show corresponding increases something like ($0.75, $1.50, $2.00 and $2.75...total Y2000 = $7.00)if flash remains strong and non-Athlon stable and of course, no major Dresden hiccups)! I think DRBES might have something there when he suggests that $300 to $500 in the longer term cannot be ruled out as a possibility! If AMD does 12.5 million "spry Athy's" in Y2000, one can only conclude that at $29, AMD represents an outstanding bargain for anyone willing to go long!

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