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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices

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To: kapkan4u who wrote (84613)	1/2/2000 1:28:00 PM
From: Charles R	of 1571811

Kap & Thread, <GTW rumors leaked out very early in the cycle, so everybody got confused on the timing of the release. Also because of the checkered past GTW ended up at the end of the line for high MHz parts.> I am with Kap on this. I believe there is one other major factor that contributed to systems not showing up in Q4. There is a plenty of data to support that Gateway and other OEMs started scrambling about October when they found out Intel was going to look after itself and cut the OEM supply on lower speed grades for Q4. By that time, every other OEM was in the same boat and no amount of scrambling gave these OEMs the Athlon motherboards needed to offer systems in time for Christmas. (of course there were a lot of other factors such as the high volume motherboard vendor, FIC, having a problem with anything more than 650, expected motherboard upgrades to PC133, the risk of carrying short lived SKUs, etc.) Gateway management made the mistake once of having a single source for the most critical component of their supply chain - CPU. They would be stupid to make the same mistake a second time. I firmly believe that what happened in Q4 with Intel and OEMs will go a long way in dramatically increasing Athlon volumes over the coming quarters. AMD is looking forward to probably the most glorious year ever in the company's existence. As a fellow AMD long I wish you all a share of AMD's success. Happy 2000! Chuck P.S.: I find it somewhat interesting that Jonathan Joseph raised earnings for the quarter by 10 cents but target price by a mere $3. He now has AMD at 15x FY2000 profits. Most other semis are now running substantially higher than that. As I have said a few times before, I expect this to change quickly and between Q4 and Q1 earnings, AMD should trade no less than the a very conservative 20x a low-ball $3 estimate for 2000.

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