RE: Dell estimate for 2000
In Dec 1997, with Dell at $86 , Pat estimated year end price of Dell at $155
Here was my reply:
To: Patrick E.McDaniel who wrote
(26649) From: Sig
Wednesday, Dec 31, 1997 11:56 PM ET Reply # of 150108
Pat:
For many months over the past year the growth rate of Dell
has been approximately $0.3 per day which is a figure I use to
overcome noise and other diversions. (others may figure differently)
With about 240 market days that would come to 0.3 x240 or
or $72 increase for next year.Which gives $156 price, so
there must be an error in your computation which gives the
much lesser figure of only $155/sh.
( I wish Steve could write this post)HeHeHeHe)
I am just kidding but our figures do agree. I consider it a
safe figure to help determine whether Dell is a good investment
when compared to other stocks.Actually when Dell has surprises they are usually to
the upside, like
1 million, 2 million, 3 million Indians....
4 million, 5 million, 6 million Indians....
7 etc .
(and those are American Indians)
SES
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Now a one year estimate should be much easier than a 5 year estimate, right?
Well what happened was this:
4 months later By April 1998 Dell reached $168/sh
1 year later, Jan 1999 Dell reached $440/sh
So our 12-mon. estimates of $155 were low by $284/share(G)
Summary:
Allowing 0.3$/avg increase in Dell per day (which turned out to be very conservative)would provide $122/share at end of yr 2000. Which would allow for a split for which the shares are available and no vote is required.
Michael may have a very good year, I may have a very good year, EVERYBODY holding Dell may have a good year.
Regards
Sig |
