Wall Street Week Picks for 2000
by: PBBUM99 (61/M/Juno ,FL.)
1/2/2000 12:49 pm EST
Msg: 430283 of 430959
Laszlo Birinyi-1999 picks +55%
2000 Picks-12Stocks(in order said)
1-AOL
2-aurora foods
3-DLJ
4-Xrx
5-Sears
6-Dis
7-Icos
8-EquityOfficeSolutions
9-Icn Pharma.
10-CPQ
11-IOM
12-MER
John Kim-1999 Picks +64%
2000 Picks(in order)
1-AOL
2-Exds
3-Msft
4-Lu
5-VoiceFree&wireless
6-Intc
7-Intu
8-C
9-Schwab
10-Leh
Liz Ann Saunders 1999 Picks +107%
2000 Picks(in order)
1-Exds
2-Brcd
3-Verisign
4-Intertrust
5-ClearChannel
6-HD
7-JDSU
8-NOK
9-C
10-Veritas
11-Genentech
12-Beas
4-John Dessauer 1999 Picks +60%
1-Rite-Aid 25% of money
2-75%Equal in the follwing stocks
T
Bally Fitness
CPQ
Hilton hotels
CountrywideCredit
JCPenny
DiAggio(sic)??
I taped the show this AM. Took this info. down on re-play of tape! WWW.Rukeyser.com might have
more later in the week on this,after they update.Also ,TWO shows this week:Reg. program and
year-end 1 Hr.Special with 5-Industry leaders.(check programming!Copy of all Elves Picks for $10 @
www.pbs.org !!
Good Luck to all and a very healthy and Prosperous Year 2000 to ALL!!the pbbum.
wall street week picks
by: june15450
1/1/2000 4:24 pm EST
Msg: 429970 of 430960
by all means, send for the list, but here's what I wrote down (they went so fast I didn't get them all)
Liz Ann Sonders: EXDS, HD, Brocade, JDSU, Genentech, BEA
John Kim: AOL, EXDS, MSFT, LU, Voicestream, C, Lehman, Schwab
???: Rite AId, T, Bali, CPQ
Lazlo Birini: AOL, DLJ, Xerox, DIS, Ikon, ICN, CPQ, Iomega, Merrill lynch.
I think when you send for the list, you get top picks from about 20 WSW panelists for around $10.00
Twelve Tech Stocks for the Next Ten Years
03-Dec-99 05:44 ET
[BRIEFING.COM - Robert Walberg] December is not only the biggest shopping month
of the year, but it is also the biggest month for list making. There's the holiday wish list;
the new year's resolutions list; the lists of year's best movies, songs, athletic moments,
etc; and, of course, in our business, the list of top stock plays. Though common sense
tells us to leave the crystal ball stuff to Jean Dixon and the Psychic Network, we can't
help ourselves. So today, Briefing.com embarks upon the ambitious task of identifying
twelve technology stocks that will not only lead the technology revolution into the next
millennium, but will reward investors with superior long-term gains.
Sustaining success over a ten year period is a difficult task for any business, but especially
so in the rapidly changing technology sector. Consequently, the top criterion for inclusion
in the list was quality management. We also looked for companies with a history of rapid
sales growth, industry dominance, proprietary technologies and/or explosive industry
growth potential. Company financials also played an important role in the decision making
process. Given the lengthy time horizon we placed less emphasis on "value."
We then took these criteria and applied them to the assumption that technology is moving
from being PC-centric to Net/Communications-centric. This helps explain why companies
which dominated the 90s such as Dell (DELL), Intel (INTC) and Microsoft (MSFT)
didn't make our list, even though they met most, if not all, of the standards. But let's not
waste any more time talking about who didn't make the grade, and let's turn our attention
to the dozen companies who, like Chuck Yeagger, have the right stuff.
The Big Boys - Market Caps Over $100bln
America Online (AOL) Along with Yahoo! (YHOO) company is the top branded
site on the Net, and by now it's too late for newcomers to knock them from their
perch... In selecting between the two, our strong belief in Steve Case and AOL's
superior financials won out... International expansion, growth in ad revenues,
e-commerce potential and huge subscriber base all point to continued success.
Cisco Systems (CSCO) Here's an example of a tech titan that isn't cheap... But
investors more than willing to pay a premium price for this networking giant given
predictably robust top- and bottom-line growth... And John Chambers has proven
time and time again that he understands the business better than his competitors...
Considering the explosive growth of the Net and demands it has placed on upgrading
the telecom infrastructure, CSCO well positioned to sustain its eye-popping growth
for years to come.
MCI/Worldcom (WCOM): The leading telecom services company in the world
today, and if it receives FCC approval of its Sprint (FON) acquisition, it will cement
that position for the foreseeable future... Company's just beginning to leverage
diverse product offerings into rapid earnings growth... Though integration of FON
will take time, management has proven that it knows how to get the most from its
many acquisitions.
Sun Microsystems (SUNW): While we aren't certain whether company can sustain
its current momentum throughout the decade, no doubt they are hitting on all
cylinders at the moment... And McNealy is one of those guys you just don't bet
against... As long as he remains at the helm of this ship, Briefing.com expects
SUNW to dominate the fast-growing server market... Company's services and
storage revenues also ramping up nicely.
Charging Hard (Market Caps of between $40-$100 Bln)
Applied Materials (AMAT): The chip industry expected to experience explosive
growth over the next several years, and one of the chief beneficiaries will be leading
chip equipment maker - Applied Materials... With over $2bln in cash and one of the
top CEOs in the tech universe AMAT also well-positioned to ride out the usual
industry cycles without suffering much damage... However, with demand expected
to far outpace supply over next few years investors shouldn't have to worry about a
slowdown anytime soon... Given industry dominance, strong financials and quality
management team, stock remains attractively priced relative to tech giants noted
above.
JDS/Uniphase (JDSU): Virtually unknown two years-ago, JDSU has exploded on
the scene as the leading player in the fast-growing fiber-optics equipment market...
With the Net's explosive growth driving demand for increased bandwidth, we see no
let up in the burgeoning demand for the building blocks of fiber-optic networks...
We aren't alone, as the street expects JDSU to post average annual growth over the
next five years of 46%... Management remains aggressive in building its leadership
position, as evidenced by the recently announced $2.8 bln acquisition of Optical
Coating Labs (OCLI)... The deal will expand JDSU's product line and should help
speed product development... For the equipment companies the goal is to be a
one-stop shop, and by bringing OCLI into the family JDSU takes another big step
toward achieving that goal.
Qualcomm (QCOM): Speaking of exploding onto the scene, QCOM's stock has
skyrocketed in 1999, as demand surged for its CDMA (code division multiple
access) wireless technology... More than 35 million subscribers now use CDMA
phones worldwide, and QCOM is there to collect the royalties... While it will be
impossible for QCOM to duplicate its 1999 performance ever again, we are
impressed by management refusal to sit still and bask in the glory... To the contrary,
company busy shedding lower margin businesses to focus on higher margin
businesses like its next-generation wireless data technology... Its newest technology,
High Data Rate (HDR) is being touted for its low cost and high speed... The HDR
technology will work with fixed and mobile devices such as cellular phones,
handheld computers, and wireless modems for laptops... The incremental nature of
the HDR upgrade means that it will be cheap for carriers to adopt, making its
chances for success all the greater... Solid financials, innovative, aggressive
management team and position at the center of the explosive Net/wireless boom
suggests that QCOM will remain a top performer.
Up & Coming (Market Caps between $5-$40bln)
Here's where the risks are the greatest, but if we are right and these companies build on
their early leadership positions the rewards should be outstanding.
Commerce One (CMRC): As noted in today's other Stock Brief entitled "B2B IV:
Let's Get Horizontal," CMRC is Briefing.com's favorite choice in the nascent, but
potentially explosive B2B horizontal marketplace... What's meant by horizontal is
that CMRC wants to benefit from B2B transactions across a broad cross-section of
industries, whereas a "vertical" focuses on a specific industry... Company's BuySite
platform offerings include the requisitioning of goods and services, travel
management, and expense management... BuySite links to MarketSite, Commerce
One's B2B marketplace... And what elevates the company above the rest in this
field has been its aggressiveness in developing a global online marketplace... It's GM
contract was a major coup... Other customers include British Telecom,
Cable&Wireless, Eastman Kodak, Pepsico, Weyerhauser and Warner-Lambert...
Stock trades at steep p/s multiple but considering that company posted year/year
revenue growth last quarter of better than 1300%, and has doubled revenues
sequentially in each of the past three quarters, the premiums are understandable.
Healtheon/WebMD (HLTH): Admittedly a long-shot play, but the stock has come
back to life after the recent approval of the four-way merger between Healtheon,
WebMD, MEDE America and MedCast... Investors now looking at how the
synergies will benefit the company over the long haul... Let's face it any company
that can help cut the bureaucracy and waste out of the country's bloated,
cumbersome healthcare system has a huge upside... Briefing.com contends that
HLTH is well positioned to do just that... Improving technicals, solid management
and relatively high brand awareness, all work in the company's favor.
Hughes Electronics (GMH): Too bad we didn't prepare this list a couple months
back prior to the recent run by the satellite service providers... GMH, along with the
rest of the group, rallied ahead of, and now after, President Clinton signed the
Satellite Home Viewer Improvement Act of 1999 that allows satellite service
providers to offer local channels... Removal of big stumbling block v. cable,
positions satellite service providers for significant growth... The
Hughes-Primestar-USSB system has 7 million subscribers, a number that should
now grow rapidly... Wider acceptance of digital satellite service, also increases the
potential for satellite-based broadband Internet access... And the possibility of
two-way satellite broadband service in a couple of years makes the prospects for
GMH even more enticing over the long-term... Briefing.com also sees GMH as a
potential takeover candidate.
PMC-Sierra (PMCS): Tough picking between PMCS, Broadcom (BRCM),
Conexant (CNXT) and RF Micro Devices (RFMD), but combination of faster
revenue growth, slightly discounted valuations, top management team and
impressive relationships/client list tipped selection to PMCS... Obviously
competition is intense, but demand in the communications chip marketplace is
tremendous, and we see no material let-up for several years to come...
Consolidation in the industry is likely, with the winner set to be the next Intel
(INTC)... Or will Intel end up being the next Intel?
Vignette (VIGN): Leading customer relationship management (CRM) software
company's products help to facilitate ecommerce and, as such, participates in both
the B2B and the B2C (business-to-consumer) sectors... Of the CRM plays, Vignette
offers the broadest platform and has the customer list to prove it... Counted among
its customers are American Express (AXP), Lycos (LCOS), Land's End (LE), CBS,
Hewlett-Packard (HWP), AT&T (T), Nokia (NOK) and Sun Microsystems
(SUNW)... VIGN's key product is StoryServer, which offers content management,
personalization and decision support... Other products include Syndication Server,
which enables businesses to manage integrated customer chains, and Multi-Channel
Server, which when released next year will enable businesses to distribute content
over other media, such as phone, email, fax, wireless, and mail... Though richly
priced at over 60x sales, company's promise and performance (year/year sales
growth last quarter of 458.7% with 63% sequential growth) suggests to us that
investors will continue to pay a premium... Briefing.com contends that the CRM
sector will be huge, and will ultimately be dominated by a few players... VIGN is the
best bet to be one of those players. |
