Here are the last few messages (OT's) from the NTAP thread
To: HDC who wrote (1945)
From: kas1 Saturday, Jan 1, 2000 5:19 PM ET
Respond to Post # 1947 of 1955
OT sort of, investment bigthink
Duncan,
>I also lost a large sum of money on a technology company >which was promoted as the next big thing.
Would you satisfy my curiosity and tell me what company that is? And more importantly, if you were making that investment decision with the knowledge you have now, what about the company would tell you "stay away" ? I find it fascinating to learn from my own mistakes -- and learning from others' mistakes is like all the benefit without the cost. :-)
FWIW, my big stock mistake this year was AOL. I still don't really understand where I went wrong, but I rode it down from 170 to 105 before selling and licking my wounds. Sure, I got in at sky-high valuation, but AOL valuation for the past x years has just been getting sky-higher...
>"first-mover" status
Actually, I think first-mover status is overrated. Oftentimes second-mover or even nth mover status wins out in the end. This is true in strict game theory, as well as in the real world of technology companies. It can be very beneficial to let someone else go ahead of you and make all the mistakes for you -- a minesweeper. Think of first-mover companies such as Spyglass (Mosaic browser), Compuserve and GEnie (online services), Commodore (multimedia computers), Quarterdeck (multitasking DOS shell)... "where are they now?"
One of my cardinal rules of investing is that almost always, the beneficiaries of "new technologies" are the old, established technology firms. I know that whatever Linux does first, Windows NT will do second, but better, and more marketably -- and whatever Juniper or Redback does first, Cisco will do second, but better, and more marketably (sometimes by just buying the upstart).
Best regards in the new year and sorry for cluttering things with the OT.
BTW, IMHO, lack of Y2K problems means party on the Nasdaq this week.
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To: DownSouth who wrote (1946)
From: piyush mistry Sunday, Jan 2, 2000 8:35 PM ET
Respond to Post # 1948 of 1955
OTOTOT
Hi Downsouth,
In Gilder's latest report, he added NOVL to the portfolio. He mentioned that it fit very well into the new "storewidth" paradigm. He's predicting an explosion in directory servers and cache servers. NOVL is well positioned in directory servers and making good headway in cache servers.
Since you have industry experience in the software/hardware for servers, I am curious if you have any knowledge about NOVL. If you do, what's your take on Gilder's take? Seems like they are teaming up with SUN, and have ex-Sun CTO Eric Schmidt as their CEO. I have not done enough research to determine if it is a potential Gorilla or King, so it may be something that does not interest you.
Would appreciate any information/insights you can provide.
Thanks,
Piyush
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To: piyush mistry who wrote (1948)
From: DownSouth Sunday, Jan 2, 2000 9:05 PM ET
Respond to Post # 1949 of 1955
NOVL's network directory service (NDS) is currently filling a sore need that MSFT has not been able to deliver (yet). That product, imo, is NOVL's only realistic hope for survival. However, it is not a Gorilla or even a King candidate. MSFT has a design and will deliver a product that will do the job well enough, eventually. (I hesiate to post my opinion because this is such a holy war between NOVL and MSFT with zealots on both sides.)
Therefore, NOVL gets none of my money.
As far as cache servers, that is an incredibly competitive market place full of Princes, with no King or Gorilla candidate in sight, imo. There will be good growth there for everyone in this tornado, but not a game that I care to play in, except with NTAP. NTAP only because of their dominance of the NAS market, not because of web caching.
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To: DownSouth who wrote (1949)
From: piyush mistry Sunday, Jan 2, 2000 9:59 PM ET
Respond to Post # 1950 of 1955
Thanks DS,
I was not aware of the competitive threat from MSFT. That puts it in good perspective. Excellent summary in terms of G&K criteria. Boy, this G&K stuff enables us to cut through a lot of crap quickly.
Loved the first installment of the G&K analysis for NTAP. Looking forward to the rest. Thanks once again.
Piyush
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To: piyush mistry who wrote (1950)
From: DownSouth Sunday, Jan 2, 2000 10:11 PM ET
Respond to Post # 1951 of 1955
Does, doesn't it.
I was in a bookstore browsing this weekend. We have a new Barnes and Noble, our first big bookstore, so its been a while since I was able to do some serious browsing.
Anyway, I went to the Personal Finance shelves and took a quick look at the dozens of books describing "the coming fall", "the DOW 100,000", how to make money in a _____ market (fill in the blank), TA for this and that. I realized, for the first time, that I have no use for these books. My G/K view of investing has provided me with a relatively simple model and language for investing.
One year ago I would have bought a few of these books, read them, made some real blunderous trades, gotten even more confused, and gone back to "a balanced portfolio".
So far, so good.
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To: Miguel Octavio who started this subject
From: Prashant Buyyala Monday, Jan 3, 2000 12:55 AM ET
Respond to Post # 1952 of 1955
My picks for 2000 and why I chose them.
Since everyone seems to be doing this, I decided to go ahead and put together my list of 10 stocks for 2000.
Top 10 (in no particular order)
1. CMGI - The run-up that this stock has had the past two years is still the beginning. On top of all the myriad of reasons we love this stock, I think that the value of their B2B companies has been underestimated. Furthermore, they are starting to expand internationally.
2. EXDS - Exodus. I visited this company a few years ago before they went public and was very very impressed. For some reason I never bought any of their stock. They are the leader in their market and it is one that will be huge.
3. NTOP - Net2Phone. Their alliances are very impressive, and with the advent of web appliances and such easy to use units, voice over internet will become even easier to use and thus more pervasive.
4. GNET - Go2Net. You've got to stick with the winners right? :-) But seriously, I think that the value of Hypermart will become much more apparent this year as small businesses will start using the internet en-masse. GNET currently hosts over 750,000 businesses and is a leader in this field. Online gaming will be huge as well and GNET is positioning itself quite nicely with deals like the one with Hasbro to create games.com . Finally, I think that people and wall street will start focusing on fastgrowing companies that are profitable at the same time. Profit is GNET's middle name.
5. SIFY - Satyam Infoway. I think that we should be thinking internationally this year. SIFY is the largest private ISP in India, however SIFY has much broader plans than just the ISP market. They are growing very rapidly and are following the business plans of AOL and YHOO. They are also investing heavily in E-commerce, B2B solutions and essentially are building a brand in India that will be a one stop shop for customers.
6. MVIS - Microvision. Check out mvis.com and mvispages.com. Microvision is about to revolutionize display technology and their heavily patented technology is stuff that I day dream about. They are starting to get a lot of media exposure and even though they will not have any products on the market until 2001, I think that excitement around their technology will cause an early run-up this year.
7. NTAP - Network Appliance. NTAP's next generation technology for disks servers looks quite impressive. With the advent of broadband, everyone will need large, fast, and reliable disks for their servers and NTAP will be there to provide the solutions.
8. USIX - USInternetworking Inc. The ASP market is just starting to warm up and will soon be red hot. It has the potential of dramatically changing established relationships in the IT industry. USIX has positioned itself quite nicely as a pure ASP company from ground up.
9. CKFR - CheckFree. I recently signed up for online bill paying and I love it. CheckFree is a leader, and I like going with leaders.
10. IDC - Interdigital Communications. How can we ignore the wireless marketspace! IDC has several patents in CDMA and TDMA technology and has some impressive contracts with companies like Nokia.
One of my favorite stocks that did not make this list is Pacific Century Cyberworks (PCCLF). PCCLF is probably one of the best internet plays in Asia. Founded by Richard Li, who created the Star TV network, PCCLF has some very impressive plans to bring the Internet to China. The reason PCCLF did not make the list is because it is not traded on any of the American markets. It is a BB stock that is traded in Hong Kong but some brokerages like MSDW and DLJdirect will allow you to buy this stock.
I created an SI portfolio with all 10 stocks and bought about $10,000 worth of each stock so that I can track them throughout the year. You are all welcome to look at it too
siliconinvestor.com
I think that this should be a great year for everyone!
Your feedback and thoughts would be much appreciated.
Thanks,
Prashant
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To: DownSouth who wrote (1951)
From: tekboy Monday, Jan 3, 2000 3:07 AM ET
Respond to Post # 1953 of 1955
OT (or should we just label NTAP-related posts "T"?)
interesting; I have exactly the opposite reaction. maybe it's because I was never into finance or investing before last summer, and so my GGing (and returns!) have gotten me curious about the field in general. I find myself more drawn, not less, to general investing books than before. In the last few weeks I've devoured the Lynch, a couple on Buffett (notes to be posted this week), a piece of crap called "The Internet Bubble," and more. I'm trying to build up the proper temperament, so that I'll be more likely to hang on tight during the next inevitable correction.
tekboy@wewon'teventalkabouttheoptionsbooks.com
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To: piyush mistry who wrote (1948)
From: kas1 Monday, Jan 3, 2000 3:42 AM ET
Respond to Post # 1954 of 1955
OT re Novell
(I know OT's are kind of bad, but since we are a group of like-minded individuals, why not use this gathering as best we can...? Maybe we should create a new NTAP offshoot thread though.)
Show me one thing Netware can do that Windows NT will not be able to do in the next release. Better yet, show me one thing Netware can do that Windows NT is not fundamentally capable of doing.
Positioning oneself as an OS add-in is a bad, bad strategy when the OS in question is from Microsoft. In addition to this, Novell doesn't exactly have a lot of accountability or history of good execution. Their products stick around a lot of corporate IT departments as legacyware, but that could change come Win2000.
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