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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK)

NOK 5.955

+1.3%

2:54 PM EST

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To: Maurice Winn who wrote (3180)	1/3/2000 10:57:00 AM
From: tero kuittinen	Read Replies (2) of 34857

Thanks Maurice - rational discourse always was your biggest forte. So now we know that a) markets are completely rational in evaluating Qualcomm's intellectual property b) completely irrational in evaluating IDC's IP. That's very compelling. But how about an alternative theory? In their sinful lust for the next jackpot, investors are abandoning all reason. They are trying to anticipate developments that can't be forecast yet (like third generation licensing fee outlook or mobile data market in 2004). If you think that mobile data development is easy to predict, take a look at 1998 forecasts. Find me one (1) person or investment bank that was able to predict the two major developments of 1999: - NTT-Docomo's stellar success with their i-mode program - rapid rise of GPRS sales to all leading GSM operators I'm not discussing mobile data solutions that only exist in press releases. I'm talking about actual sales & subscriber reach. And to my knowledge there was nobody who foresaw both of these two -99 trends accurately in 1998. If industry experts can't see 12 months into the future - what makes 100 month forecasts so compelling? Tero

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