Hi Robert, hope all is well.
My post Y2K Outlook:
So the world did not end... no planes fell from the
sky and electricity, natural gas, oil and water all
continue to flow as usual. I can't say that I'm not
a bit disappointed, considering all the seemingly
believable doomsday scenarios that have been shoved
down our throats the over the past 12 months. Now that
'everything is alright forever', look for the Dollar
to weaken and bonds to continue tanking as the Fed
mops up the liquidity it swamped the markets with
these past few months (which it admittedly did as a
Y2K precaution). As the money supply decreases,
financial stocks will feel the pinch and a tech
sell-off should also finally materialize. Technical
analysis confirms this posture. The Dollar has just
completed a six month triangle (coiling) pattern which means
that a violent move up or down is about to occur. I
believe that the move in the Dollar will be down, as
emerging markets attract investment due to their
low valuations and high growth prospects relative to
the U.S., not to mention the recent death of Y2K
concerns, which have undoubtedly sidelined many an
institution from committing capital to these markets.
I am:
1. Bearish on U.S. tech, financials, the Dollar and bonds.
2. Bullish on Emerging Markets, HK, Japan and the Euro.
3. Bullish on Natural Resources, though not as bullish
as just two months back...primarily because Y2K has
not disrupted natural resource availability.
A prosperous millenium to all on the thread!
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