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Biotech / Medical : Ligand (LGND) Breakout!
LGND 197.46+1.4%11:12 AM EST

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To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (29857)1/3/2000 5:13:00 PM
From: Torben Noerup Nielsen  Read Replies (2) of 32384
 
Skeeter,

Assume that McCamant is right and lymphoma indications generate a peak net sales of $100M for Ligand. Assume further that they reach $50M this year (would this be credible?). What would that translate to in terms of earnings for the company? Would it be enough for Ligand to turn profitable? If that is the case, then even his projected peak of $300M for breast cancer should send the stock through the roof. If Targretin proves effective for that indication that is.

In the first year of profitability, they should be able to command a leading P/E of 50 or so unless the market goes South in a big way.

Thoughts on how to quantitatively value their prospects?

Thanks, Torben
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