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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: kash johal who wrote (84767)1/3/2000 5:14:00 PM
From: Bill Jackson  Read Replies (1) of 1572965
 
Kash, They need to find those smalcos where some money makes a difference. Ones that have a unique niche or patent that will be where everyone is going in 2-5 years. Fund them and let them rip. Some of those businesses have become commoditised already. There will be quite a convergence at the low end with CPUs, Video and DSP all converging there with workalike solutions. Dollar day on parts is arriving sooner than we think.
I am sure that Intel has a map of the future, as they see it, out to 5-10 years, getting vagues at the limits and they have people who are tasked with identifying the new growth areas and the dying areas.
Welch might find that a hard trick to repeat. Since then there has been a revolution in industry, commonly called...the 2nd IR, and all the competitors are very much leaner than when Welch first came on the scene. That trick has been done and GE has now slowed down it's growth rate.
Now, what can Intel do? Just what it doing, as long as it's guesses are correct and the players they back end up in the 1-2-3 top tier. What is hard is to pick then a few years early....earlier than others pick them and up goes the fee. Can I pick them? If I took the time to survey all the disparate fields, arrange the players in order, identify the estimated rate of growth of each field and each player and plug this in to a world model. I am sure Intel among many, does this now.
Will I do it? Naw, I roll dice...more fun

Bill
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