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Technology Stocks : RealNetworks (NASDAQ:RNWK)

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To: diddlysquatz who wrote (4780)	1/3/2000 5:53:00 PM
From: DaYooper	Read Replies (2) of 5843

Hi Paul, I'm not a technician like our friend Bong, so I'm probably not qualified to make a prediction... but I will anyway, from a more fundamental rather than technical perspective. Allow me to doing some thinking aloud and let me know if I'm in touch with reality. I think (and admittedly I hope) the selling pressure will now end. Mark Cuban has accomplished his goal of making RNWK appear vulnerable. I personally don't believe he ever really intended to eliminate the RealPlayer from Yahoo but that he just wanted to weaken the perceived stranglehold Real has on the streaming market. You can be sure he is very unhappy about Real's progress in content and he has responded accordingly. I'm still wondering what role if any MSFT played in this whole episode. Maybe they were never in the loop since I doubt Cuban's intentions were ever serious. But if Yahoo really has plans for a Yahoo branded media player then some related talks must have taken place. Thoughts anyone? In any case we will now be getting back to fundamentals I think. And RNWK at $8.6 market cap is very cheap relatively speaking. The December tax selling is over for those who bought in late and got burned by Cuban's manipulation. And today we had more tax related selling for those who had nice gains in the 98-99 run up and want to pay taxes in April of '01. Now we can start here and move ahead. Expos and conferences coming up and RNWK always makes good press. And you never know how an excellent management team will surprise. Wait and see. Earnings announcement later this month should the real turning point. Revenue growth will be very interesting and I think surprising. Analyst conference call should put MSFT and YHOO fears to rest finally. Expect analysts pounding the table following that discussion. Possibly Blodgett will make a stronger and louder statement. He's not looking so shrewd considering he announced his near-term accumulate and long-term buy calls on Dec. 15 near the highs. And I wouldn't be surprised by a stock split announcement, especially if we are back over 150 by earnings later this month. 2000 will be a breakout year for broadband. The 'last mile' solutions will be competing in a heated race. DSL or cable modem will be your choice this year in most major cities. Streaming media will be a killer app as we get the speed. Need I say more about the implications of that? The sucure digital music initiative, SDMI, will have some positive effects on RNWK and I think we can expect an announcement around Spring/Summer from that organization. And how's RG feeling these days about a stronger alliance/partnership/merger with AOL? Seems like Cuban gave him every reason to strongly consider such a move. My gut tells me we're now at the year 2000 lows. Or is it my heart.... hope not. Let's wait and see. Rory

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