<a) markets are completely rational in evaluating Qualcomm's intellectual property
b) completely irrational in evaluating IDC's IP.>
Tero, Tera, Tora, you've stretched my comments way past superstring limits, tunneling into another dimension.
So many companies and challenges to Qualcomm's IPR have left the IPR intact that it seems very improbable that the important patents won't retain their strength. That doesn't mean that people buying Qualcomm's stock have correctly valued the patents. They certainly haven't - even the enthusiasts have little idea what patents are involved and certainly have no idea what an open market sale of the patents would bring. Q! could sell the patent portfolio and pay a royalty to use the technology [they have a LOT of talented engineers]. Then we'd know what it's worth.
IDC has had little successful selling of their technology and has produced little in the way of implementation. IDC's IP presumably has some value. The basis for presuming that it is worth the current frenzy is untested to any significant degree.
Mobile data development was very easy to predict, even before 1998. You can read about Anita [TM] way back in 1996. You can read at the same time about the valuation of Qualcomm that would result. Okay, I didn't have broad democratic support, but owning the stock was some compensation. The details of which company would show there is serious demand was not so easy to predict. I always assumed that GSM and other TDMA systems would cobble together some data solutions. So they have.
Since NTT has shown the demand by real subscribers and GPRS has shown how quickly service provider demand will occur when they understand there is big money to be made, we can assume that the CDMA world will be going flat out now that they can see what's happening.
The seeding of the HDR demand by the Korea Telecom Freetel deal by Microsoft and Qualcomm might not be necessary.
Nokia and everybody else has got to get into CDMA, HDR and GSM overlays as fast as they can. The WWeb world is not going to wait until 100 months from now. So far, Nokia is an also-ran. They'd better get moving.
How are your Globalstar predictions doing? Got a short on the stock now?
Maurice
PS: There was a guy and his wife, bicycling around NZ in Xmas costumes from the far south to the north. He was wearing, among other things, a reindeer antler hat! For a minute I was excited, thinking you were visiting Kiwiland. But the name didn't match. |
