Ref- <In today's market, if an idea seems cool, trivial matters like reliable products are irrelevant.That's why you see Cisco's stock performing like it does. Or why QCOM stock goes up 50% based upon an analyst report that assumes that half the people in the world will buy a CDMA phone, never mind that about 80% of the people in the world have never used a phone. Or why AMZN can continue to sell dollar bills for 90½ and nobody care >
The market assumes that every cool internut idea will automatically become another Intel within five years. Messy issues like execution, competition and profitability are "trivial details" which will automatically happen. However Intel itself is assumed to be too profitable, has too many competitors, and things for Intel can only go downhill. And any wild idea which might dethrone Intel [ e.g NetPC, internut appliance etc] is automatically given a high probability of success. So for an established company, the dictum is "Show Me", but for a new fad, execution and success and high profitability are assumed to be automatic. Imagination is outrunning common sense ! Intel unfortunately is not catering to the Imagination Business.
The speculative bubble will end one day, and will drag everything down. Intel will have less to fall, and be the first to recover. |
