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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 665.67

-0.9%

Nov 17 4:00 PM EST

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To: Doo who wrote (36577)	1/4/2000 3:01:00 PM
From: Cathedra	Read Replies (3) of 99985

Jeff, this down day is refreshing, but my sense is that we still have to wait a bit for the chance to make some real money (on the way down and then up). At this point, the NAZ has achieved a measure of stability that IMHO is supported by (a) short covering, (b) buying on the dip and (c) lack of direction due to lack of institutional participation. We will probably see a few days of range-bound trading, punctuated by a counter-trend rally or two. The big drop will occur when the longs (retail and institutions) become convinced that there is little immediate upside to justify the downside risk, and the shorts are emboldened by the same conviction to wait for the bottom. I, however, do not have as low a target as you do. My sense is that we are about 500 points away from a significant bottom.

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