Young,
Thanks much for the warm reception of my first post.
If only my students liked my lectures that much, or that
I had a salary commensurate with those of the editors of
Barron's, the WSJ, etc.
You want me to revise that exponential curve UPWARD?
Wow, you are a bull. The curve I posted indicates
1997 revenues of $11.5 BILLION, with a "B". I posted
it thinking it is an extreme upward bound from which
to work (which is how Mary C. used it in a subsequent
post), a kind of far outer envelope. You're now saying
that, because of the JAZ coming online, it's too low??
Would you like to work up the numbers on such a
projection? Much as I love IOMG, I think they'll
be hard-pressed to hit a grand slam twice in a row.
The JAZ will sell, I suspect, as the Ditto does, but
I think it's far too soon to predict that, just as
the Zip may replace the floppy, the JAZ will replace
the internal hard drive. I'll wait until Jim Seymour
says it will in his column in PC Magazine. Based on
the lag between when he raved over the Zip and when
the street caught on, I'd say we have plenty of time
yet to revise all that much upwards if the JAZ becomes
the Next Big Thing. I'm willing to be convinced otherwise,
but $11.5 billion is a lotta money. Would you care
to convince us all otherwise?
Cheers, Tom
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