FROM RAGING BULL:
By: corpgold
Reply To: 30821 by lakefolks
Tuesday, 4 Jan 2000 at 4:45 PM EST
Post # of 30853
lake, from the article:
"Japan will become the first country to launch an advanced 3G Web phone which will
offer faster Internet access and video display, as well as allow callers to use the
same number and handset worldwide"
Gilder's premise that (a) the U.S. is ahead of Japan in internet buildout/users
therefore (b) the U.S. based mobile technology (Qualcomm's) will control the world
buildout seems falacious. It's falacious because you can not draw a straight line from
computer internet use to mobile phone internet use.
We know that both Europe and Japan are far ahead of the U.S. currently relative to
mobile phone use and behind the U.S. in computer internet use. Japan nor Euorope
does NOT need a computer advent to build out a mobile phone advent. The two can
be viewed as principally mutually exclusive. Internet based mobile phone technology
will advance relative ONLY to the current MOBILE PHONE TECHNOLOGY used in
the country.
Thus, if you have a large user base of mobile phones it isn't difficult to assume you'll
have a large base of internet user mobile phones.
Therefore, Gilder's comment (since it was mentioned here) that the US based
technology (Qualcomm principally) will control the internet mobile market becuase
the U.S. is ahead in the internet market in general, under the above assumption,
wouldn't hold true.
Gilder's inference is taken one step further: Qualcomm technology will advance
beyond that of Nokia's technology because of his conclusion. But, if you're initial
premise is invalid, your inference is invalid. Nokia is currently the leader in mobile
phone technology worldwide relative to (a) number of handsets sold (they make
money on their handsets, Qualcomm couldn't), and (b) total infrastructure buildout for
mobile access - combined CDMA, GSM and TDMA, relative to dollar value of
contracts.
My premise would be (a) because Nokia is currently leading in the mobile phone
market world wide, isn't it more valid to infer that (b) Nokia's mobile phone
technology (i.e., Japan's and Europe's) will also lead in this race?
Please remember that IDC's 3g technology and results are better known among their
foreign asset base than in the U.S. market.
Thus, IDC's relationship with Nokia to produce 3g IPR blocks for mobile internet
phones becomes that much more important. IDC DOES NOT MERELY represent an
RF engineer project for Nokia because Nokia was running behind in the number of
engineers it needed to complete certain projects. |
