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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum

MU 237.50

-1.5%

Dec 15 3:59 PM EST

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To: Eric Miller who wrote (299)	6/11/1996 8:44:00 PM
From: Fred Fahmy	of 53903

Eric, Putting aside the debate of whether or not this is a good time to buy semi's, you really need to learn what the BTB is. It is NOT a measure of shipments or volumes. It also is NOT a measure for one month but rather a rolling three month average. So even if it did meaure volumes it would not indicate a 16% drop in shipments for May. The BTB is measure of REVENUE. A .84 BTB means that for every $1.00 Company X took in over a given time period, it has orders for $.84. Given that chip prices have been falling dramatically, it is very possible (in fact probable) that actual volumes of chips are increasing. I am not suggesting that none of semi's have an inventory problem, but you definition of the BTB is factually incorrect. I would suggest that the fact that the BTB has increased over the past two months is a good indication that the bottom has been reached for semi's in general (maybe not so for MU). As an investor, you want to buy semi's when the BTB is low and heading up. When the BTB got extremely high late last summer, that was the signal that the top had been reached at it was time to sell. This is the nature of a cyclical industry. FF

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