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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME
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To: KevinThompson who wrote (17898)1/4/2000 10:26:00 PM
From: gamesmistress  Read Replies (2) of 57584
 
From Worden:

HINT: Vengeance is Mine Sayeth the Market
(never say these guys don't have a sense of humor :-))

When a market demonstrates this kind of virulence, it is generally a good bet that it isn't going to be cured in a day or two. The malady is going to go through four stages. The first is characterized by high fever and denial. This isn't happening to me! I am not afraid. This too will pass. The second stage is marked by contrition, excruciating pain and blood-curdling screams of agony. The third stage is defined by a calming down, especially if the patient is tied to the bed or restrained with a strait jacket. In the fourth stage the patient is able to sleep, although mental depression is often apparent ? marked by deep suspicion and the conviction that nothing will ever be the same again. In the old days, the bodies of brokers were often dragged from rivers and canals. These days you are more likely to find the crushed remains of home computers in trash cans. This is what to look for if you hope to catch the bottom.
Seriously, it probably won't be that bad, but this could be a nasty decline. For the Nasdaq Composite merely to return to its 40-week moving average would involve a plunge from just under 4000 to well below 3000. It would undo the manic move of the entire last quarter. As for the Dow, there is some chance it could drop below 10,000 and into the low 9000s. Be prepared to protect your profits, and especially to enforce your loss-cut points on newer commitments.
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