Mark,
In a selfish kind of way, I hope that your correct... :0) (been discussing the "Peter Principle" with the wife.)
Again, I liked GRNO at $7, I like GRNO even more at $4 3/4, and I am absolutely enamored with it in the $4 range.... :0)
Here's a question for you. We know, (at least I know), that Research Fuels still requires a processor for their other project. What will a one unit contract valued at $1.5 million mean to the fundamental value of this stock?? Where does the pyschology play in? Research Fuels deal has already been announced, and all that remains is for the delivery of the initial deposit, which I strongly feel will occur early in this quarter.
On one hand, we have the TA people who are merely following emotions and charts saying that there is a technical breakdown. These folks are scrambling to sell in a self-perpetuating panic that only transfers their shares to the market makers at a cheap price. (Don't say that there is no emotion involved, there always is, especially if you are out of the money... :0)
On the other hand, we have others, like myself, saying that this is a huge buying opportunity given the vastly improved fundamentals of the company... ie: cash on hand, Unit #2 under construction for sale in 2nd quarter, a processor that has exceeded design limitations only after producing at over TWICE its original design of 400/gph.
FA types are fully expecting that this company will exceed its .50/share projections in 1997 and are fully willing to wait out the yo-yo market timing mentality of the TA folks. We are basically in for the long term and aren't nimble enough to play the ups and downs.
So I ask you. Why shouldn't this stock go all the way back to $1 given the mentality of locking in profits? Maybe it is a rhetorical question, but I ask it due to the underlying principle of stock valuation. Stocks are valued based on investor confidence. FA types are the long-term individuals who choose not to surrender to the madness of crowds as that bounce our little ship, "Equity" around in their tempest of emotions.
GRNO was a buy at higher levels based on fundamentals of the time, and it is an even greater value to investors at this time. I cannot time the bottom because none of us know where interested parties have placed their "Buy Stops". Someone has to be the anchor that prevents TA analysis from being self-fulfilled prophecy. FA types are the ones who provide that anchor. So tell me how many of those 375,000+ shares are held by folks like myself?? How many are held by TA folks??
How many are held by folks who have no idea why they invested in GRNO in the first place other than someone told them they could make a fast buck??
In sum, GRNO has declined on relatively light volume indicative of mmkr shenanigans. ALLN has been dominating the market for the past 5 weeks while the others mmkrs have been hung out to dry. I say that they are now trying to shake out as many "weak of heart" GRNO shareholders, (who are merely in this stock for the quick buck) as they can until they are left with us FA types who aren't willing to sell their shares for anything. I will be one of the FA's who provide that foundation. Myself and others with substantial holdings will continue to hold and limit the amount of shares that are sold.
(BTW, don't forget that ALLN easily has accumulated over 2-300,000 shares alone over the past several weeks as far as we can tell. Will they sell their $6 - 6 1/2 position for chicken feed?? I think not.)
I was in this situation last summer and waited it out. I can do it again. Why?? Because I *KNOW* Bill Carraway does not want to be faced with a crowd of angry shareholders at the May meeting. He has a much higher vision for GRNO, and we will be surely clued in on the full story at that time.
So we basically have a battle between believers and atheist/agnostics.
I know that you're a believer, and so am I.
Regards,
Ron |
