I don't know of another company that is held to analysts predictions THAT ARE HIGHER THAN A COMPANY'S OWN GUIDANCE to the extent that Intel's are.
Frank, its fairly well known that the earnings estimate season is somewhat of a gaming season. Gaming in that most companies provide the analysts with 'guidance' re what the numbers for the upcoming quarter will be. That is why more often than not the companies' earnings come in right at the analysts' consensus estimate, or now a days, one penny above. There is no magic or coincidence about it. The guidance of course is sufficient to get the analysts to the right consensus.
All companies, of course, know what the consensus estimate for their company is and aim for it in their earnings. The middle of the last month of the quarter typically is considered the beginning of the warning period. Its at that time that a company warns that it will not make the quarter or will exceed the quarter dramatically. While making such warnings is not required, it is expected.
Intel, of course, knows all that and chose not to prewarn for the past 2 quarters when they were unable to meet consensus estimates for those quarter. Now you can argue all you want that Intel met its own consensus, and frankly, the street could give a sh*t. To the traders and investment houses etc., Intel failed to meet the street's consensus and that's the only consensus that counts.
The first time it happened, the stock was not penalized because in its CC, the company spokesmen went on and on about how good the second half would be. But when Intel did a repeat at the end of the Sept quarter, the stock went into a stall from which I have yet to see it recover. If Intel fails to meet consensus this quarter, I believe the stock will go into a serious dive. Even Intel must ultimately pay the price of the piper.
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