Winkman is right - next hurdle is the "spin doctoring"...
Since when was a 1.5 M boe drawdown not GREAT NEWS ?!?! - especially AFTER there would have been a Y2K build ? - they didn't wait untill the week leading into Jan 1 to "build up emergency stocks" all at once - they would have built it over a few weeks at least.
For all those spin doctors who "poo-poo'd" the strong prior draws we had as "retail" stock piling for Y2K - how do they explain "any" draw at all - yet alone a 1.5 M boe draw here ?
Bottomline is that "we" are the only people in the world who want to see $30 Crude Oil here. There is a hell of a lot of money & a hell of a lot of people who will do anything & everything to stop $30 Crude.
Byron Wein was not the first Analyst to cite $30 crude as "THE" pin to pop the market bubble here. Governments, Economists, Industries, The Markets & The Public - all do NOT want to see $30 Crude here - and the Spin Doctoring here will be strong.
This is building the needed "Wall of Worry" for Crude to bust out thru $30 very shortly imho. Get all the long speculators out, get some short interest built in crude again... and then wait for another 3 week API run drawing down about another 15 M boe - and watch Crude Oil - just "go nuts" here shortly...
I do think we just may see some rotation money flow here if the DOW settles softly - but, the NASDQ really needs to blow off - that is where "our" MO-Mo money is (VBG).
There is one hell of a lot of money sitting on the sidelines and the ususal new money arriving to start the year; as long as we do not see a "Black October" type of correction - we just may be pleasantly surprised at the end of Jan - first of Feb imho... next 2 weeks may be dicey - everyone will watch for OPEC compliance and the next 2-3 weeks API's along with the Weather & Nat Gas prices will be paramount.
I think we have seen and saw again today; strong buying support in some stocks like EOG UPR - who have established levels where they get strong Institutional buying - EOG on ANY dip under , or around $15 gets strong buying, UPR sub $12 as well. Small Caps held pretty damn well today as well - there was no panic to the selling, I think we saw a short run on low volume to start the day, then the buyers came in on some individual stocks very strongly in the E&P's anyway... I think we have strong established support levels in many of those stocks, some there now & they bounced well today, some close.
Knowing where those established support levels are is the key to trading here. EOG was my strong buy today - caught it right at the low this am on the break of $15, caught some UPR & NBL as well. There are individual stocks that can be safely bought here imo.
Tomorrow - FLC is close, $10 7/8ths, or better and FLC becomes a core longterm hold for me - can't be a BOOM 2000 without $20-$30 FLC - $10's are a guaranteed double for FLC -just a matter of how long. CXIPY getting close to $30-$32 entry - this is a premier class company - near $30-32 is a must own stock, GLBL - I allways start buying on any break of $7 and sit at $6 1/2, $6 as well, PTEN - I add at $10 15/16th - close here as well, VTS I will load on a break under $13 into the $12's is a no-brainer. I saw some Institutional buying today that I really liked - they picked their stocks & their price points; they know WHAT they want & what price they want it at - they aren't chasing anything here - so be patient.
PS - how about Virgina Tech tonight ?
... answered any questions I had about them being for real.
Too bad you can't buy "options" on this kid - Michael Vick huh ? - Heisman winner in 2 years max... 4.33 40 speed & the kid can do it all... Hokies impressive - hoping they pull one off here - I'm tired of Bowden's Deputy Dawg routine...
Ahhh yes, the days of lore when I'd be watching the Fighting Irish playing for the title... LOU, LOu, Lou, lou... some nice ND/Miami & ND/FSU battles.
The new asshole AD ran Lou off - badly missing the Golden "Era of Ara" - hell, I'd take a Devine clone here - Davie sucks... he's a rat bastard (re: Joe Moore case) & everyone knows it - can his ass, eat the damn contract - whatever it takes & blow out that psychobabbling - Academician-ambassadorial asshole AD with him. Saw tears running down the cheek of Touchdown Jesus this year... The Magic & Tradition of the Blue & Gold - nothing like it... or at least there didn't use to be...
Uh oh, FSU opening it up... back to the game. |
