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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)
QCOM 174.23-0.6%Dec 22 3:59 PM EST

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To: Craig Schilling who wrote ()1/5/2000 7:55:00 AM
From: ganeshd  Read Replies (2) of 152472
 
Important to keep perspective of it all.

Pull backs are healthy especially considering the huge run up we all have enjoyed. There is much fear right now on the thread regarding a big drop. At the end of the day it is about earnings.

My personal opinion is that we will blow out earnings. Wall Street has just got on the Qualcomm bandwagon since last earnings report. Personally, I don't think they know how to quota Qualcomm because it is very difficult to quota a royalty based business model.

Another key to remember and think about is this. Qualcomm is relatively new in it's new fame as a hot stock. If you make an analogy to technology product adoption life cycles, it goes like this. 1) Innovaters 2) Early majority 3) Late Majority 4) Laggards

Qualcomm is in the Early Majority stage as far as its adoption cycle on Wall Street. When a stock is at that stage it will have tremendous volatility and can double quite quickly after a split considering earnings are good and a little air comes out of our bag after our recent run up. Volatility is good, don't get flustered by it. In fact when Qualcomm stops being volatile I will sell.

An example of catching a stock in the latter part of its adoption life cycle would be Dell, one year ago. Qualcomm is a long way from being a Dell, probably 18 to 24 months before this train slows down.

If you have been an innovater and bought Qualcomm at least 6 months ago. Fear not I say. For the good times are just getting started. Hold your profits and get the tax break Word is out, major players are making the way for CDMA, and Qualcomm's sale to Kyocera should prove to be the revenue stream that will pull us over the whisper numbers in the long term. On top of that Wall Street has been searching for a new revenue/profit producing darling since Dell died of old age.

Ex- Dell Account Executive
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