Rudy, come to think of it....there ARE a few reasons to hold onto Dell over the next year or so...
(1) At some point...will be listed (IDC articles, etc)as the #1 seller of PCs in the commercial market...that will bring attention back to the stock..possible upgrades, etc.
(2) <Even better> At some pt. soon, Dell will become the #1 seller of PCs PERIOD....the stock should enjoy a nice pop the day that press release hits....Some investors will "revisit" Dell...
(3) Microsoft 2000....it certainly would be "counter-trend" if Dell DID NOT have a good year during a major Microsoft upgrade (year)
(4) Rambus, Xeon....similiar to (3)
(5) <This is dicey, but> Some "realism" will probably occur in the pricing of internet/tech stocks this year...I think we'll see some shift (not a lot) to real companies, real earnings, solid franchises.....like Dell.......IMO, this trend will start as soon as a few e-tailers go out of biz...which should happen in a few months..
(6) Dell 1st quarter last year (May '99 reporting) was pretty abysmal (for Dell's standards)..and should present a really nice Y-O-Y comparision this May...ditto for October...ah, the benefit of bad quarters (Y-O-Y comparisons)....some momo guys are going to get off on those numbers (comparisons)..drawing further attention to the stock..
(7) International economic recovery (albeit slow) underway...international sales should stay strong
(8) <The one positive from the chip "crisis"...> I've read that some 3rd-tier players may have been mortally wounded (by not getting enough chips...cheap chips....)..it would make sense....Dell, being the most efficient, is in the driver's seat..good times or bad.....potentially less competition going forward...
(9) No Y2K uncertainty..
So, in conclusion, '00 should be decent year for Dell, the stock....afterall, even with last year's "crises"..the stock STILL gained 39% January 1-December 31...IMO, we have much more positive environment, at least looking out at this pt... than last year (in retrospect)..even with a declining P/E...Dell (the stock) should be able to appreciate at least 25% p.a. from here......and possibly much better (40? 50%?)...and that's not bad at all... |
