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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU)

LU 2.650

-2.9%

Nov 14 9:30 AM EST

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To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (12070)	1/5/2000 8:57:00 PM
From: Mr.Fun	Read Replies (3) of 21876

Chuzz, Of course I agree with you about the current valuation. I offered the in perpetua valuation as a strawman for discussion. Apparently there has been only one company in history to deliver 20%+ growth for as many as 15 consecutive years - IBM in the heyday of the 360. Even MSFT has, in its history failed to deliver against that target. Cisco now has delivered 8 consecutive as an independent company. We are betting that current bubble valuation persists a bit longer - indeed the nifty fifty didn't blow up overnight. The key is to understand that the more extended valuations in the tech group will be very volatile and to act promptly when solid research tells you that events could catalyze a revaluation either of the group or of a particular stock. CSCO is not a risk-free investment returning 70% a year - but try telling that to the pollyanna thread cheerleaders who apparently believe they have discovered perpetual motion, the universal solvent and cold fusion all in one.

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