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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: Elmer who wrote (85335)1/5/2000 11:08:00 PM
From: Dan3  Read Replies (2) of 1572145
 
Re: Hey! tell us again how AMD is about to rocket to the moon...

He must be busy, I'll do it :-)
=====================================================
Message 12446666
Hi Elmer,

Here's a possible scenario for AMD in Y2K:

Millions of units:

T Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
K7 2 4 6 8
K6 5 4 2 0

K7 ASP $150
K6 ASP $60

Costs:

.9B 1.0B 1.1B 1.2B

Flash Sales $1.5B
Com and Misc $0.5B

Earnings: $1.4B
EPS for Y2K: $9.30
Stock price: $280

Regards,

Dan
===========================================
PS - I'm serious about these numbers. Note the lower ASPs
for Athlon than most expect, and higher K6-X ASPs. In a
world where Intel and AMD are competing serously for the
high end, high end ASPs will fall. The K6-X ASPs will be
higher because a higher proportion of them will be for
notebook systems than previously. One effect of lower
high end ASPs will be an increase in high end market share.

AMD should be able to supply about a third of the market
with 12,000 employees. Intel will supply 2/3's of the
market with 65,000 employees. There is more to being the
low cost producer than die size.

With recent news, I might expect AMD to ship a few million
more units in Q2, Q3, and Q4 - so please take these
numbers, and projected stock price, as conservative. <VBG>
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