Saturn V, article below further emphasizes the very strong demand going on right now, and projecting forward, for semiconductors. Your idea that Gateway's problem appears to be a demand forecasting problem. is undoubtedly being exacerbated by the tight supply situation everywhere. The boxmakers had it made when they could sit back, let Intel, IBM, Seagate, Samsung, ASUS and the like do all the development, and then order the parts just in time, and stick them together. Not so easy now.
"There is a shortage of capacity in virtually every product area," he explains. In fact, the outlook is so bright
that some chip equipment managers are starting to worry that IC growth could be too strong in 2000. This, they
say, would result in a return to product glut conditions within a couple of years. "We'd rather see a long growth
period instead of one of these quick jumps or spikes," declares Werner Rust, director of marketing at San
Jose-based Silicon Valley Group Inc.
That's not the end of the good news. "We now expect three very fat years," declares analyst Risto Puhakka, vice president
of operations at VLSI Research. Chip equipment sales in 2002 are expected to grow 30% to $60 billion, he predicts,
before they flatten out in 2003.
"Capacity is very, very tight, and it will only get tougher to keep up with semiconductor demand," Puhakka notes. "We're
already seeing the new fab announcements starting to roll in, and we haven't found any nasty surprises to spoil the party."
Message 12473263
|
