Someone had asked where I came up with my estimation of what GNET will earn next quarter...(okay...this is long and probably goes around in a couple of circles...so please forgive me..also..it's late and I'm tired...so their may be a few mistakes...if so, please edit the mistakes out and change the numbers as needed)...
from a post by Ron Reece...
Message 12295907
(and $7 million being applied directly to the bottom line as a result of the Hasbro partnership displays that. It will add significantly to EPS next quarter).
from GNET Financials page..
siliconinvestor.com
Equity: Common Stock $.0025 Par, 8/99, 50M auth., 27,815,368 issd. Insiders own 29%. IPO: 4/97, 1,600,000 shares @ $8 by Maxwell Capital, Inc. (As of 9/98) STD: $91K @ undisclosed. *NOTE: FY'95 - '97 fin. are & FY'97 - '98 Q's being restated for 6/98 pooling-of-int. w/Silicon Investor, Inc. for 1,238,043 shares. 6/99 & 2/99, 2-for-1 stock splits.
Key thing of interest...
27,815,368 shares issued.
Also from same page..(except my last line)..
date revenue (x000) % growth
sep 98 1,956
dec 98 2,600 33%
mar 99 4,325 66%
jun 99 5,726 33%
sep 99 9,784 71%
dec 99 14,774 ~51% (based on avg of previous 4 Qrts)
Now..last quarter we know that they surprised everyone with what 12 cents...(twice what analysts had predicted.
Here's the news brief...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/research/story.gsp?s=GNET&id=235182
From that we find that for the quarter ending Sep 99
income from operations = $1,660,097
income from interest = $3,659,449
total = $5,319,537
# of shares used to calculate EPS was 46,037,194 (different from above..so we'll use this one instead since this would represent a worse case scenerio)...
BTW...that equates to .115548 cents or .12 rounded up.
Okay...lets try to figure out what we'll get for the upcoming EPS announcement...
Assume that the 51% increase in revenues (averaged from four previous quarters) is accurate and that actual profits from operations increases 51%...then
1,660,097 + (1,660,097 x .51) = 2,506,746.47
Recall above that I mentioned revenue from interest was 3,659,449 and not knowing what the heck is going on here...I will assume it increase to 3,750,000 (interest on the interest).
Adding the two numbers together we get a total profit of 6,256,746.47
Add in the 7,000,000 from the Hasbro deal...to get 13,256,746.47 (assuming that is paid this quarter)...
Divide that by number of shares outstanding 46+ million (see above) and we get
.287957 or .29 cents a share...
w/o Hasbro money... ~ .14 cents a share...
w/1 million of Hasbro money... ~ .16 cents a share...
w/2 million of Hasbro money... ~ .18 cents a share...
etc...
since there are some things still unknown to me...like how much cash did they pay along with number of new shares in stock given to purchase newly acquired companies...(any cash paid out will directly affect overalll amount of revenue garnered from interest) and the number of shares increased will drive the EPS downward...
for instance..suppose they gave away 20million dollars last quarter...might mean they'd earn 1,000,000 less in interest if the rate was .05 cents. in addition...suppose they also increased the # of share to 49,000,000. taking both of these two changes into account would result in
revenues = 12,256,746.47
# of shares = 49,000,000
new EPS = .25
If anyone can find out the actual number of shares, as well as, the cash used to purchase recent acquisitions...then we can probably get it pretty close....
anyhow...I think I belabored the point and baring any real bad assumptions/math...I'll stick with my .18 to .22 cents per share estimate...
Hope I'm not too far off..
Okay..start shooting holes through it...
Steve out.. |
