On signs of trouble and a opinion I respect..
<<If, indeed, the market is bottoming here, I would expect to see a retest of yesterday's lows rather than a penetration. But, considering where we've been, the greater probability is an overall bearish resolution with the noted exception of individual stocks that are attracting buying interest. It's simply hard to imagine the stock market making substantial upside progress when the bond market continues its recent slide. True, interest rates are low by historical standards, but the upward pressure on rates will discourage or restrict some economic activity. It is interesting to note that this rise in rates has for the most part been outside the purview of Alan Greenspan. The bond market began its slide in October, 1998 and, if anything, has influenced the Fed more than the Fed has influenced it! The marketplace is negative on interest rates! If the market is truly bottoming here, we should begin to see positive breadth accompanied by an increase in upside volume. >> |
