GF, great points in your post!
<Isn't there a risk that some processor-independent standard, such as that used by web-based applications, will ruin much of that standard? I have been thinking about this as I have very much come to hate PCs, or computers in general, for their awkwardness and unreliability.>
Yeah, we can get our processors running close to a gigahertz, but we still can't make our digital cameras work with our systems. (Just ask Craig Barrett.) Or make our OS run crash-free for 24 hours straight. Or find the right drivers for our add-on components. Or install an application without fear of radically changing how the rest of the system works (thanks a lot, Microsoft).
I think part of the reason why people are looking for "The Next Big Thing" (tm) is the fact that while PCs have advanced quite a ways in just a few years, they're still unreliable as hell. For example, some of those people have pinned their hopes on Internet appliances like WebTV or WebPC, or even Web-connected game consoles like Sega Dreamcast or Sony's upcoming Playstation 2, since ideally none of those devices will have the shortcomings of PCs.
Of course, concensus hasn't been reached on what "The Next Big Thing" should be. And besides, PC makers like Compaq, Gateway, and Dell are trying to tackle some of these usability problems head-on in PCs. The so-called "legacy-free PC" is an example.
Who knows what could happen in the next few years? One thing is for certain, though. We'll definitely hit another "inflection point" in that time period, and it will probably deal with the usability issue. But that point just seems too fuzzy right now.
<I mention this because it would be a shame for AMD to invest so heavily in participating in a market that might very quickly become irrelevant. The profits that lured AMD in might disappear upon arrival.>
I'd doubt those profits will disappear THAT soon, but it is a legitimate danger. Yet it's not clear to me that PCs are quickly becoming irrelevant as you say. More likely than not, PCs are just going to evolve like they always have in the face of rapidly changing conditions.
Tenchusatsu
P.S. - Speaking of gigahertz processors, I'll bet once that GHz barrier is breached, either by AMD or Intel, the milestone will be met by a big yawn.
"Does that mean my computer won't crash anymore?"
"Uh, no."
"Can that GHz processor make my #$!@#% printer work with my system?"
"Uh, no."
"Can I surf the Internet faster with a GHz processor?"
"Not really"
"Then what's the point?"
"Bragging rights?" |
